India are unlikely to tinker with a winning combination, while Matt Henry’s availability will be in focus for New Zealand

Alagappan Muthu08-Mar-20254:00

Key match-up: India spinners vs NZ batters

Big picture: The two best spin-bowling unitsEverybody knows how this is going to play out.India will lean on the strength of their spinners, who on occasion have challenged the idea that runs even belong in the game of cricket. Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy are probably allowed to do that. One minute, they toss a tiny white ball down the pitch, the next a full-grown man at the other end becomes a footnote in history without knowing what happened.But the other two? The left-arm orthodoxers? One of them doesn’t even do it right. Axar Patel is supposed to turn the ball. And by all accounts, he does try. He runs in steady. He gives it a good rip. But the ball just never listens. All it wants to do after leaving Axar’s hand is crash into the stumps. India’s four spinners have produced 21 wickets in the Champions Trophy 2025. That’s more than the other three World Cup winners in this competition combined.Related

Shubman Gill: 'This is the best batting line-up that I have been a part of'

India and New Zealand, the most dominant forces in ICC events

Rohit and Kohli, making each other greater

Stead: Hectic travel schedule 'takes it out of you a little bit'

Henry's availability for Champions Trophy final 'a little bit unknown'

Dubai has been the perfect playground. It is also shaping up to be a bit of an asterisk. Rohit Sharma and his men have had one less variable to worry about than every other opposition – travel – and that clearly makes it less of an even playing field. And it would be unfair if they – the players – had asked for it. They didn’t. All they’re doing is taking advantage of an advantage given to them. Cricket cannot solve the issue that has led to this event – and potentially other future events – being conducted in two different countries. So it did what it could. Put on a show and cash in.Perhaps New Zealand are here to balance the scales a bit. Their spinners have been almost as good as India’s, picking up 17 wickets, and they’ve had the better of India in four of the last eight ICC tournaments. They have a member of the current Fab Four in good form and a contender for the next one coming off a hundred. Eight of the XI they’ve been using at this Champions Trophy were also part of the Test side that beat India in India 3-0. They really should stop meeting like this. But lucky for us, and maybe the ICC too, they won’t.Form guide: India on a rollIndia: WWWWW (last five matches, most recent first)
New Zealand: WLWWWCan Kane Williamson continue his good form in the final?•Getty ImagesIn the spotlight: Kane Williamson and Shubman GillNew Zealand will be playing in their sixth ICC men’s final. Kane Williamson has been part of five. How many more does he have left? He’s seen Steven Smith retire from ODIs. He’s seen Joe Root exit the Champions Trophy. He’ll be seeing Virat Kohli soon enough, and only one of them will get to walk away with a title. What if Williamson wins? Will he bow out on a high like Kohli did from T20Is? And what if he loses? Does he have it in him to keep going?It was a double-century against New Zealand that showcased the heights that Shubman Gill can reach in one-day cricket. The ease with which he puts the ball away. The ability to handle pressure. The skill to shepherd an innings even while running out of partners. He seemed too young, at 23, to be able to do all that. And yet there he was. It seems entirely appropriate, considering the speed with which Gill has developed in ODI cricket, that only two years later, he has the chance to shape an ICC event.2:19

Is it still advantage India in Dubai?

Team news: Matt Henry trains on match eveIndia have beaten New Zealand in Dubai already and that’s how they realised their best combination for those conditions, bringing in Varun and gaining another point-of-difference bowler through the middle overs. It’s unlikely they’ll want to tinker with that.India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Axar Patel, 6 KL Rahul (wk), 7 Hardik Pandya, 8 Ravindra Jadeja, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Mohammed Shami, 11 Varun ChakravarthyThere has been concern around Matt Henry’s right shoulder after he landed awkwardly on it during the semi-final three days ago. He has been key to New Zealand’s plans, particularly against India, before. And so, in what would have come as very good news for New Zealand, Henry bowled and fielded at their nets session on match eve, suggesting he should be fit to play.*New Zealand (probable): 1 Will Young, 2 Rachin Ravindra, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Kyle Jamieson, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Will O’RourkePitch and conditions: Win toss, bat first, win match?A fresh pitch was offered to the two teams in the semi-final in Dubai and though it was somewhat better for batting, it wasn’t by any means helpful. Both teams will be focused on taking pace off the ball and might value setting a total, not just because it is a knock-out game, but because in the absence of dew, run-scoring will get harder as the pitch wears and tears.Stats and trivia: Kohli chasing Gayle Henry has ten wickets at an average of 16.70 at this Champions Trophy. Five of those wickets came in the group match against India in Dubai India have made the knockout stages in 12 of the last 14 ICC events and won three. New Zealand have made eight and won one Virat Kohli is 45 runs away from beating Chris Gayle’s record as the highest run-getter in the Champions Trophy New Zealand’s spinners took seven wickets in the semi-final against South Africa, their joint-highest tally in a game of 50-over cricket. But they weren’t too effective in the group game they played against India, picking up two wickets for 128 runs at 5.1 runs per overQuotes”Yeah, regardless of whether it’s my last or not, that’d be pretty nice, wouldn’t it?”